Exchanges overvalue trading volumes to raise their own ratings and to increase their attractiveness for traders and, consequently, to increase their income.
According to the DETEK group, the volume of the over-the-counter exchange is 3-4 times higher than the volume of the exchange-based market, but the volume of the over-the-counter market can be even higher in reality.
Some transactions, especially with large amounts, do not leave their wallets, going from hand to hand. For example, at one of the largest trading venue in Europe in Zurich, large deals are made by transferring a USB flash drive or hardware wallet from hand to hand. Thus, the participants of this operation are insured against the possibility of restoring access to the wallet according to the seed phrase.
These volumes do not appear on the exchange and do not affect the price of Bitcoin. None of the big players sells and buys anything on the exchange, the big miners also never sell their bitcoins on the centralized exchanges because they do not want to lower the price for themselves, moreover it is the big miners that have a market advantage over small and medium ones.
Large funds gladly pay a considerable premium of up to 20% for fresh Bitcoins, since it is important for them that they do not receive transactions from wallets identified as black market money, the gaming industry, or the arms market. There are services that easily recognize the sources of bitcoin origin.
In addition, large miners have their own OTC platform.
Big money never seeks anything other than profit, quick profit, safe profit. Banks, as we know, have no morals or restrictions. When it comes to quick money, Banks will not stop anything. Now they make billions on Bitcoin and the last crash of Bitcoin is caused by the banks.
Preparatory stage: any large-scale operation needs planning, and banks have begun to prepare for this operation since the winter of 2018. Large exchanges owned by bankers are not a market instrument in developing a fair bitcoin rate (large transactions take place on OTC markets (under-the-table) without getting into the exchange’s order book), but simply set the price as they see fit. An ordinary honest market participant, who has sold his bitcoins on the stock exchange, will not even notice anything, his order will be executed, and in fact will go directly to a large broker, bypassing the book of orders.
In waiting of bullish sentiment, over-the-counter brokers prepared bitcoin megadump, which we all witnessed.
Rich people hate losing money, they are engaged only in a safe business, they don’t need a dangerous business, and this safe business is INSIDER TRADE.
Simplified scheme is as follows: banks are buying huge amounts of Bitcoin in the over-the-counter exchange.
The introduction of futures trading on the Chicago commodity Exchange was perceived by many as a signal for stable growth, but the opposite happened: the growth of Bitcoin then stopped completely and the bankers, buying huge amounts of bitcoins on the over-the-counter exchange, immediately went to the futures markets to fix the price for 30 days.
The whole essence of the Chicago commodity Exchange is to trade, for example, a volume of 10 million dollars with a leverage of 1: 100, it is enough to deposit only 113.960 dollars. This is very profitable ONLY in the event that YOU know in which direction the bitcoin market will move.
The bankers knew this better than anyone, that’s why they caused a big drop in prices on the SPOT market, making synchronously a dumping of large lots on the world's largest crypto exchanges. In fact, they bought bitcoins in the over-the-counter exchange for quick, big profits.
And on 11/14/2018 "someone from the bank's administration called the trading hall of his bank" (in fact, micropayments were sent to 555 satoshi to owners of large wallets). This order meant selling everything until another order arrived, for example 666, meaning to stop a dumping. These transactions can be traced in the blockchain network, and notice, that before the attack on Bitcoin large wallets received the same orders (orders can change, but the essence remains the same).
The "panic sell” begins.
As a result, they expect a huge bonus in the futures market, which, thanks to 1: 100 leverage, is 100 times higher. The greater the loss of ordinary holders and traders in the stock market, the greater the profit of bankers. As a result, bankers earn tens of billions of dollars in profits, and tens of billions of dollars are lost by crypto-enthusiasts, traders, funds, simple bitcoin holders to lose, and we see bitcoin by $3800.
All this is happening because the Bitcoin market is NOT REGULATED!
Therefore, everything is possible in a single trading session up to the fall of Bitcoin to zero.
All this is impossible in the stock market because the SEC is on guard of the order and no one will allow manipulations, because in the event of a sharp fall in stocks, trading will be stopped automatically.
Bankers, of course, will not completely destroy Bitcoin, it would be too simple and too stupid. They will repeat this model again and again, only the directions and intervals between stocks will change, so that smart traders would not see a patterns here and could not use it. This will continue until a lot of money can be squeezed out of the market, quickly and a lot.
As wallets are empty from bitcoin owners and traders, bankers will fix a low rate in order to buy more bitcoins within 30 days on the over-the-counter market. As soon as they accumulate a sufficient amount, the price will go up, and the crowd, bored by the dump, will rush to the stock exchange to buy Bitcoin, pushing its course up even more. Bankers will install futures in a falling market by that time, and when Bitcoin rises against the expectations of the market, they will earn twice as much.
It is necessary to remember the technical side. Mining is necessary to maintain the Bitcoin infrastructure, and a BTC / USD rate drop below the break-even point for a long time will lead to the collapse of the entire system. Therefore, such a fall in the rate of Bitcoin is very short-term and can last no more than a month.
Based on the cyclical nature of markets, periods of pump and dump are inevitable. Bitcoin, like any asset, is subject to market cycles. After a high runup, a downtrend period follows, which inevitably follows a rise, usually above the previous maximum. A similar picture can be seen by looking at the price of gold: in 1980, the price reached a maximum ($850) in a very short time, and then followed by a fast dump with several waves.
In 2011, the price of gold reached its regular record high of $1920 per ounce. Of course,it does not make sense to compare time ranges because Bitcoin volatility minimizes periods from decades to months. Thus, the topic of the growth of Bitcoin prices can not be discussed - growth is inevitable.
We use forecasts from different sources. However, we rely not only on historical technical analysis, but to a greater extent on market realities. Considering our participation in the OTC market and possessing a certain amount of insider information, we can make predictions more reliable than current «cryptanalysts».
At the beginning of June 2018 we made a regular forecast, in which the exact movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate was determined in November 2018 and before the price decline was $4200, and then the short-term decrease was slightly lower than $3300.
In December 2018, we made another forecast taking into account the same criteria and approaches:
The next short-term peak on Bitcoin is $6000, then again the attack is down, again the delay per month. Then up to $26000 - it will happen around July 2019.